This calculator goes beyond a single loot weight. It combines every relevant pool and roll in a chest table to estimate the chance that one generated chest contains at least one copy of the item you want.
These are theoretical probabilities conditional on a given chest loot table actually being used, its listed pools generating, and the default data remaining unchanged. The Ranch template is now decoded: one placed regular-table chest and two placed secret-table chests are confirmed. World-generation chances are still outside this calculator. Results do not include world-generation chances, loot modifiers, Luck adjustments, chest refills or duplicate-loot prevention from other mods.
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How this chest is rolled
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Examples from the actual loot tables
On a phone, swipe the table sideways to see the full odds column.
| Reward | Source table | Chance of ≥1 per chest generation |
|---|---|---|
| Bottled Tael | Windmill secret chest | 10% (one 10-of-100 roll) |
| Bottled Tatl | Lon Lon Ranch secret chest | 9.23% (1–3 independent rolls, each 5 of 105) |
| Song of Storms sheet | Windmill regular chest | 100% from its dedicated pool |
| Epona’s Song sheet | Lon Lon Ranch regular chest | 100% from its dedicated pool |
| Magic Lantern | Link’s House chest | 100% from its only pool |
About the math
For a particular pool, each roll selects one entry with probability matching entry weight ÷ total pool weight. If a pool performs n independent rolls, the probability of no matches is (1 − per-roll chance)^n. For a uniformly random roll count such as 1–3, we average that expression across 1, 2 and 3. Multiply the no-match probabilities of separate pools; subtract from one to get the chance of at least one item. For multiple independently generated chests with the same loot table, use the result as the per-chest probability.
Data: six custom data/mastersword/loot_table/chests/*.json files in mc-1.21.1 commit c6f0da7. Per-entry item counts affect quantity, not this at-least-one event.